Is the talk of sanctions and possible military strikes blinding many in the West to the role of internal dissent in ending the Iranian bomb crisis?

In today’s (30 Sept 2009) UK telegraph Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi – son of the Shah – argues that supporting the people is the best route to blocking the Iranian nuclear bomb program:

By supporting the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights, by elevating the importance of their liberties, the West will find its greatest ally on the nuclear issue. Empowering the opposition movement will encourage and prolong internal dissent, and sustaining that internal unrest is the key to cracking the clerical code.

While sanctions can in fact prove to be a useful tool in the shed of diplomacy, they result in the suffering of a nation’s citizens, victimising the innocent many for the sins of the stubborn few. For sanctions to truly be effective in Iran, human rights have to be put on equal footing with the nuclear concern. Many of my Iranian compatriots have indicated to me that they would be willing to add to their hardships in the short term only if they believe that sanctions will curtail the lifespan of clerical oppression and cure their want of human rights.

Will support for human rights, when combined with sanctions. be enough to end the Iranian bomb program? Ahmadinejad and the Iranian regime will continue to pontificate and stall, while centrifuges are spinning and delivery systems are being developed. The sanctions must disproportionately hit global Iranian interests, not the poor who pray every day for regime change.

Finally, remember an old US schoolyard lesson: When a bully threatens you, you deal with it by gathering your friends and threatening the bully. They always back down. The threat of attack needs to be continually front and center.

At some point there will be a regime change in Iran. Sanctions and the threat of attack will probably not stop the program – it can only slow it down long enough for internal dissidents to force political change. Bringing international human rights pressure to the Iranian regime, combined with support for dissident factions will help establish the right relationships with a post-revolution Iran.