In the wake of the overwhelming Irish “yes” vote to the Lisbon treaty, some things seem almost certain: Poland will sign the treaty; the Czech Republic will be pressured to adopt it; Tony Blair may¹ become “EU president”; an EU “Secretary of State” will be named; and there will be new impetus to add Turkey and several Balkan states to the Union.

What are the implications for the US? Giving Europe a single voice on common policy matters could ease US-EU trade relations and bolster joint defense programs. Adding Turkey to the EU will be a net positive for the US. The downside? A stronger, more unified EU could thwart or pressure American policy, but mutual economic interests and reliance on a joint US/Europe defense make this unlikely in most cases (with the exception of climate change and global warming policy, which seems to border on a religious obsession among many Europeans.)

There’s an opposite view though: In Europe nationalism usually prevails over pan-European sentiments. Citizens of the US refer to themselves primarily as Americans and secondarily as residents of their individual states, while Europeans still identify themselves as nationals of their own country first. Individual member states inevitably seek to maximize the welfare of their citizens, and the Lisbon Treaty contains several provisions to guard member state sovereignty².

At the moment such nationalist sentiment is particularly strong in the UK, where a yes or no referendum has never been held and the Lisbon treaty is naturally a part of the broader debate leading up to next year’s Parliamentary elections. The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has gone so far as to say that even if the Lisbon Treaty goes into effect parts of it could still be subject to a referendum under a Tory government.

As for the White House, Tony Blair’s support for the Iraq War makes it likely he doesn’t have too many friends in the Obama administration, and Obama himself seems distant from EU leaders such as Brown and Sarkozy. Even though the positions of Poland and the Czech Republic were taken before Obama’s recent missile defense system decision, it will add to pressure within them to move forward.

What to expect? Some eventual progress on governance and enlargement of the EU, while internal squabbling and national self-interest impedes the ability to create a stronger worldwide European presence. There will be little downside for the US in this scenario, and the whole thing will barely be a blip on Obama’s radar screen.