Will Israel Attack Iran in early 2010?
Are reports that the Israelis are planning to launch an attack on Iran in early 2010 credible?
Today’s (15 Oct 2009) Jerusalem Post has an article suggesting as much:
According to a report in Le Canard Enchainé quoted by Israel Radio, Jerusalem has already ordered high-quality combat rations from a French food manufacturer for soldiers serving in elite units and has also asked reservists of these units staying abroad to return to Israel.
The magazine further reported that in a recent visit to France, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi told his French counterpart Jean-Louis Georgelin that Israel is not planning to bomb Iran, but may send elite troops to conduct activities on the ground there.
These, according to the magazine, could involve sabotage of nuclear facilities as well as assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists.
The veracity of the quoted article is highly suspect – after all, there’s something truly laughable about soldiers dining on high quality French cuisine in a battlefield, and the paper is reported in some circles to be a satirical journal and not a source of news
Still, is such an attack a credible plan? And is there any truth to the story, is it disinformation, or is it just something fanciful conceived after a final glass of Bordeaux?
Let’s face it: with an on-going existential threat it’s likely that Israel has better intelligence about Iranian nuclear and military activities than the US. Jerusalem is waiting for President Obama to realize what the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany already know – that sanctions won’t work, and the Iranian leadership will use negotiations to stall and delay while they spin enough highly enriched uranium to fabricate a bomb or two. In the meantime Iranian disingenuousness helps Israel build a case that the only option is a military one.
Ultimately Israel will act on its own if need be. Obama’s dovish instincts (substitute “wimp” if you prefer) diminishes the chances that Israeli planes will get permission to fly-over and refuel in Iraqi airspace. Even if permission was granted an air-launched attack would have enough lead-time for Iranian air-defense systems to be ready, impeding but not repelling the attack. 1 Additional complexities ensue due to the underground fortified locations of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
So what of Plan B – a commando style raid that decapitates the Iranian nuclear program? It has none of these complications, as it can be covertly prepared for and surgically carried out without anyone’s permission and minimal risk of civilian casualty. The Israelis are more than capable of such an operation.
Neither option will end the program, but it will delay it for several years – long enough for the Iranian opposition to continue to strengthen and overthrow the regime. Both options risk a retaliatory strike against Israel – either directly via missiles or indirectly via terrorists targeting domestic and foreign assets and civilians. Israel has to be confident it can defend against an Iranian missile attack from Iran or Syria, and the IDF/Mossad have a long history in dealing with real and suspected terrorists.
Presuming that the reported conversation actually occurred, could all of this be an Israeli disinformation effort? Leaking such a plan through a third-party to a French publication known for questionable reporting makes it deniable. At the same time the plan is credible enough to keep the Iranian leadership guessing, although a commando-style operation has to be on their threat assessment charts. But why do this? Perhaps this is just an attempt to create some type of temporary distraction while other plans are being implemented, or add pressure to the Iranians to negotiate more earnestly with the UN.
What if the reported conversation never occurred and the story was planted by Iran, perhaps based on intelligence it gathered about a planned operation? Could it be used as yet another ploy to manufacture outrage against Israel and UN attempts to impede Iran’s supposedly peaceful nuclear energy program?
And finally, what if all of it is just a wine-fueled figment of the writer’s imagination? The best satire always has an element of truth. One thing is clear – time is running out for Iran, and Israel will do something, regardless of the cost and worldwide opinion. Besides, I’m sure that Israeli field rations could use improvement. Bon appetit, Israeli commandos.
Update 25 Oct 2009: A Washington TImes Op-Ed speculates on the consequences of an Israeli Air Strike. The probability of President Obama authorizing US forces to join in an attack seems pretty low.
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Yeah,Israel will always have an enemy.
It was Iraq now it’ s Iran.
It’s ingrained in their fabric and religious fundamentalism.Once they obtained their illegal WMD it was 1967,which led to 1973 and Lebanon wars.They created Hizbollah and Hamas MOVEMENTS.
US funding and political cover has to stop.War crime investigations of recenent Israel 2008 onslaught will put Israel high command on notice.
Economic boycotts are around corner.
Will Net drag us in?…I saw an article elite units gathering at old AF base and others to guard a nuke location..
I haven’t seen the article you refer to. The US would almost have to be involved for an air strike to be successful since Israel would need stealth technology and Iranian air defenses could be formidable. We could keep things at arm’s length with a commando-style raid.