In the wake of the overwhelming Irish “yes” vote to the Lisbon treaty, some things seem almost certain: Poland will sign the treaty; the Czech Republic will be pressured to adopt it; Tony Blair may become “EU president”; an EU “Secretary of State” will be named; and there will be new impetus to add Turkey and several Balkan states to the Union.
What are the implications for the US? Giving Europe a single voice on common policy matters could ease US-EU trade relations and bolster joint defense programs. Adding Turkey to the EU will be a net positive for the US. The downside? A stronger, more unified EU could thwart or pressure American policy, but mutual economic interests and reliance on a joint US/Europe defense make this unlikely in most cases (with the exception of climate change and global warming policy, which seems to border on a religious obsession among many Europeans.)
There’s an opposite view though: In Europe nationalism usually prevails over pan-European sentiments. Citizens of the US refer to themselves primarily as Americans and secondarily as residents of their individual states, while Europeans still identify themselves as nationals of their own country first. Individual member states inevitably seek to maximize the welfare of their citizens, and the Lisbon Treaty contains several provisions to guard member state sovereignty.
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The 1 October 2009 meeting in Geneva between the so-called E3+3 (Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China) and representatives of “Mahmoud and the Mullahs” was a not-so-surprising initial success. The Iranian leadership knows it’s being backed into a corner following the disclosure of the under-construction Qom enrichment facility. The only hope for them to stay in power and continue their program is to play along.
The outcome of yesterday’s meeting didn’t stop the centrifuges from spinning. Nevertheless, it’s a promising start, with an agreement to allow inspection of the Qom facility and to ship roughly 75% of Iran’s stockpile of 1,600 kg of low enrichment uranium (LEU) to France or Russia for enrichment to research grade. This is probably close to the total amount of LEU in Iran, given the number of operational centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility (see my post Iran’s Nuclear Program: By the Numbers for more details.) What’s left isn’t enough to make a bomb anytime soon.
There’s a few unanswered questions though:
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The American view that the French are wimps is ugly and undeserved but widely held, so French President Sarkozy’s statement implying that President Obama is one gets our attention. Apparently Obama didn’t want Sarkozy to upstage him at the UN in September. The result:
Sarkozy was so annoyed with Obama’s weak-kneed approach that he reportedly told Le Monde that “we live in the real world, not in a virtual one”, a cutting and mocking reference to the US president’s drive for a new arms control treaty.
More from the Wall Street Journal
President Sarkozy in particular pushed hard. He had been “frustrated” for months about Mr. Obama’s reluctance to confront Iran, a senior French government official told us, and saw an opportunity to change momentum. But the Administration told the French that it didn’t want to “spoil the image of success” for Mr. Obama’s debut at the U.N. and his homily calling for a world without nuclear weapons, according to the Paris daily Le Monde.
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Is the talk of sanctions and possible military strikes blinding many in the West to the role of internal dissent in ending the Iranian bomb crisis?
In today’s (30 Sept 2009) UK telegraph Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi – son of the Shah – argues that supporting the people is the best route to blocking the Iranian nuclear bomb program:
By supporting the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights, by elevating the importance of their liberties, the West will find its greatest ally on the nuclear issue. Empowering the opposition movement will encourage and prolong internal dissent, and sustaining that internal unrest is the key to cracking the clerical code.
While sanctions can in fact prove to be a useful tool in the shed of diplomacy, they result in the suffering of a nation’s citizens, victimising the innocent many for the sins of the stubborn few. For sanctions to truly be effective in Iran, human rights have to be put on equal footing with the nuclear concern. Many of my Iranian compatriots have indicated to me that they would be willing to add to their hardships in the short term only if they believe that sanctions will curtail the lifespan of clerical oppression and cure their want of human rights.
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All items in this post are sourced from publicly available information. Like all By The Numbers posts, this is intended to be a reference for your information and use, updated regularly, with every item linked back to a source document for further information. Since many details of the Iranian program are sketchy, these numbers are subject to frequent change and may deviate from other published sources.
- 3:: Number of known Iranian research reactor sites
- 2:: Number of known Iranian uranium enrichment plants: Qom and Natanz
- 10 to 15:: Possible number of secret Iranian nuclear development sites, including recently revealed Qom site.
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You’d think that President Obama could spare a few minutes for a formal meeting with the leader of one of our oldest and most important allies while both are in town on business. Not so. According to the BBC:
The prime minister’s team were “frantic” after being unable to secure the talks at the UN summit in New York, a diplomatic source has told the BBC.
However, the president held private meetings with the leaders of Japan, China and Russia.
Downing Street said reports of a snub were “completely without foundation”.
Not a snub? Sounds like typical British “stiff upper lip” stuff so as not to create further tension and to minimize Brown’s domestic political embarrassment.
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