Are reports that the Israelis are planning to launch an attack on Iran in early 2010 credible?
Today’s (15 Oct 2009) Jerusalem Post has an article suggesting as much:
According to a report in Le Canard Enchainé quoted by Israel Radio, Jerusalem has already ordered high-quality combat rations from a French food manufacturer for soldiers serving in elite units and has also asked reservists of these units staying abroad to return to Israel.
The magazine further reported that in a recent visit to France, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi told his French counterpart Jean-Louis Georgelin that Israel is not planning to bomb Iran, but may send elite troops to conduct activities on the ground there.
These, according to the magazine, could involve sabotage of nuclear facilities as well as assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists.
The veracity of the quoted article is highly suspect – after all, there’s something truly laughable about soldiers dining on high quality French cuisine in a battlefield, and the paper is reported in some circles to be a satirical journal and not a source of news
Still, is such an attack a credible plan? And is there any truth to the story, is it disinformation, or is it just something fanciful conceived after a final glass of Bordeaux?
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The 1 October 2009 meeting in Geneva between the so-called E3+3 (Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China) and representatives of “Mahmoud and the Mullahs” was a not-so-surprising initial success. The Iranian leadership knows it’s being backed into a corner following the disclosure of the under-construction Qom enrichment facility. The only hope for them to stay in power and continue their program is to play along.
The outcome of yesterday’s meeting didn’t stop the centrifuges from spinning. Nevertheless, it’s a promising start, with an agreement to allow inspection of the Qom facility and to ship roughly 75% of Iran’s stockpile of 1,600 kg of low enrichment uranium (LEU) to France or Russia for enrichment to research grade. This is probably close to the total amount of LEU in Iran, given the number of operational centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility (see my post Iran’s Nuclear Program: By the Numbers for more details.) What’s left isn’t enough to make a bomb anytime soon.
There’s a few unanswered questions though:
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The American view that the French are wimps is ugly and undeserved but widely held, so French President Sarkozy’s statement implying that President Obama is one gets our attention. Apparently Obama didn’t want Sarkozy to upstage him at the UN in September. The result:
Sarkozy was so annoyed with Obama’s weak-kneed approach that he reportedly told Le Monde that “we live in the real world, not in a virtual one”, a cutting and mocking reference to the US president’s drive for a new arms control treaty.
More from the Wall Street Journal
President Sarkozy in particular pushed hard. He had been “frustrated” for months about Mr. Obama’s reluctance to confront Iran, a senior French government official told us, and saw an opportunity to change momentum. But the Administration told the French that it didn’t want to “spoil the image of success” for Mr. Obama’s debut at the U.N. and his homily calling for a world without nuclear weapons, according to the Paris daily Le Monde.
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Is the talk of sanctions and possible military strikes blinding many in the West to the role of internal dissent in ending the Iranian bomb crisis?
In today’s (30 Sept 2009) UK telegraph Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi – son of the Shah – argues that supporting the people is the best route to blocking the Iranian nuclear bomb program:
By supporting the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights, by elevating the importance of their liberties, the West will find its greatest ally on the nuclear issue. Empowering the opposition movement will encourage and prolong internal dissent, and sustaining that internal unrest is the key to cracking the clerical code.
While sanctions can in fact prove to be a useful tool in the shed of diplomacy, they result in the suffering of a nation’s citizens, victimising the innocent many for the sins of the stubborn few. For sanctions to truly be effective in Iran, human rights have to be put on equal footing with the nuclear concern. Many of my Iranian compatriots have indicated to me that they would be willing to add to their hardships in the short term only if they believe that sanctions will curtail the lifespan of clerical oppression and cure their want of human rights.
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All items in this post are sourced from publicly available information. Like all By The Numbers posts, this is intended to be a reference for your information and use, updated regularly, with every item linked back to a source document for further information. Since many details of the Iranian program are sketchy, these numbers are subject to frequent change and may deviate from other published sources.
- 3:: Number of known Iranian research reactor sites
- 2:: Number of known Iranian uranium enrichment plants: Qom and Natanz
- 10 to 15:: Possible number of secret Iranian nuclear development sites, including recently revealed Qom site.
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Is President Obama unintentionally outsourcing US foreign policy?
A pattern emerging from recent events suggests so. Up first, of course, is the plan to scrap the US Missile Defense shield in Eastern Europe, a long-time thorn in the side of many European and US Liberals, not to mention Vladimir Putin. By putting the planned system on hold, Obama has simultaneously angered many of our European allies and appeased the Russians, who must be dancing in glee behind the walls of the Kremlin.
What’s the effect? The EU has neither the will nor resources to effectively deal with a resurgent and emboldened Russia looking to expand its influence, especially with former Eastern Bloc nations. This credibility-destroying decision cements Russia’s position as the other 800-lb gorilla in the room, and effectively outsources at least some European security decisions to them.
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