The 1 October 2009 meeting in Geneva between the so-called E3+3 (Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China) and representatives of “Mahmoud and the Mullahs” was a not-so-surprising initial success. The Iranian leadership knows it’s being backed into a corner following the disclosure of the under-construction Qom enrichment facility. The only hope for them to stay in power and continue their program is to play along.
The outcome of yesterday’s meeting didn’t stop the centrifuges from spinning. Nevertheless, it’s a promising start, with an agreement to allow inspection of the Qom facility and to ship roughly 75% of Iran’s stockpile of 1,600 kg of low enrichment uranium (LEU) to France or Russia for enrichment to research grade. This is probably close to the total amount of LEU in Iran, given the number of operational centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility (see my post Iran’s Nuclear Program: By the Numbers for more details.) What’s left isn’t enough to make a bomb anytime soon.
There’s a few unanswered questions though:
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Is President Obama unintentionally outsourcing US foreign policy?
A pattern emerging from recent events suggests so. Up first, of course, is the plan to scrap the US Missile Defense shield in Eastern Europe, a long-time thorn in the side of many European and US Liberals, not to mention Vladimir Putin. By putting the planned system on hold, Obama has simultaneously angered many of our European allies and appeased the Russians, who must be dancing in glee behind the walls of the Kremlin.
What’s the effect? The EU has neither the will nor resources to effectively deal with a resurgent and emboldened Russia looking to expand its influence, especially with former Eastern Bloc nations. This credibility-destroying decision cements Russia’s position as the other 800-lb gorilla in the room, and effectively outsources at least some European security decisions to them.
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Looks like Hugo and Mahmoud are getting even friendlier. The events of last week – the furor over Obama’s speech to US school children, his health care address to a joint session of Congress, September 11th commemorations, and the 9/12 Washington march – overshadowed the announcement of a new strategic deal between Venezuela and Iran.
According to the AP, “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sealed an agreement to export 20,000 barrels per day of gasoline to Iran, state TV reported Monday. The deal would give Tehran a cushion if the West carries out threats of fuel sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program.”
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